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Antony Van der Mude's avatar

Very nice explicaton of what Large Language Models can and can't do. Yes, they can reproduce and translate what is in their training corpus but they can't really think, so they can't extend things beyond that corpus. As a techie, I think of it in terms of curve-fitting. A 9 degree polynomial will fit 10 data points exactly, but it gives bizarre results outside of that range.

What this goes to show is that computer programming is a practice, just like playing a musical instrument or painting a picture. But since it is for commercial purposes, creativity is not really valued. I have been known to mumble something along the lines of "If I had a dollar for every sort function I've written, I could buy ...", then sigh and get to work.

Vibe coding is going to throw 80% of all programmers out of work because it was all drudge work anyway, even though it required a lot of skill and the output was pure thought-stuff. But in the end, it is typically no more creative than the guy on the assembly line welding the right front panel onto the next Edsel that arrives at his station.

I once was in the position of staffing the software department of a small start-up. For every person who applied for the job, I just said "Write a bubble sort." I even described what a bubble sort is in a couple of sentences. Then I left them to their own devices for a half-hour - just them and a pad of paper. 80% of the people who came in could not do it. Of the people I hired, one was a young lady, Eve, whose mother was the head librarian in East Orange New Jersey. The room where I would leave the applicants happened to hold a wall full of books that came from our Chief Technical Officer, someone who had retired as an engineer from Bell Labs. Eve had finished the task and had pulled a book of computer algorithms from the shelf to check her work. She was the only person to do this. She felt guilty when I walked in on her, like she was cheating. I was delighted. I hired her on the spot.

Most programmers aren't like that. They take what they have been taught and just plug it in. At best, they will learn a new library of functions, but in the end it is all plug and play. They can be replaced by a robot just as sure as the assembly line welder was. In terms of a career, they are doomed.

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